Qualifying for the Round of 16 and Germany's Chance to End the "Curse" of Four Decades in the European Cup (2024)

English›Qualifying for the Round of 16...

Since 1984, no host has won the European Cup. Can Germany break the deadlock?

Germany, host of the 2024 European Cup, ensures qualification for the round of 16. Two wins over Scotland and Hungary meant that Germany qualified from the preliminary round of Group A by collecting 6 points.

Opta Analyst match statistics up to the second match, Thursday (20/6/2024), noted that Germany was the team with the sharpest attacking ability of the 24 participants in the European Cup. With two appearances, Germany has scored seven goals or an average of 3.5 goals in each match. German players also recorded the most shots on target, with 17 shots.

Germany's successful passage to the round of 16 European Cup 2024 has opened up its chances of becoming champion. The prediction given by Opta Analyst places Germany as the second team that has the potential to win the title this year. The motivation to become champions this year will be a record of Germany's success in the European Cup.

In the history of participation in the European Cup, Germany has become champion three times. Apart from Germany, Spain has also managed to win three European Cup trophies. The number of titles won by Germany and Spain is the highest among other countries.

The last title was won by Germany in the 1996 European Cup, or 28 years ago. However, those three titles were won outside of Germany. The "Panser" team has yet to win the championship title in their own country, even though Germany once hosted the 1988 European Cup.

Since it was first held in 1960, the European Cup has always left an interesting story for the host organizers. If you look at the history of the European Cup, it appears that the home team had quite a hard time winning the title.

Of the 16 tournaments that have been held, only three host countries have managed to win the title. Meanwhile, other host countries have been eliminated in the semifinals, or even in the group stage.

Spain became the first host to successfully win the championship title. Holding the status as host in 1964, Spain showed its strength since the round of 16. In the final round, Spain managed to defeat the defending champion Soviet Union with a score of 2-1.

Four years later, it was Italy's turn to make use of their status as the host. Armed with their status as group champions, Italy performed strongly from the quarter-finals to the final of the 1968 European Cup. Despite stumbling against Bulgaria in the first quarter-final match, losing 3-2, Italy managed to turn things around and win 2-0 in the second match.

In the final round, Italy successfully silenced Yugoslavia with a score of 2-0. At that time, Yugoslavia was a highly regarded country in European football.

The footsteps of Spain and Italy were then followed by France in the Euro Cup 1984. France successfully swept all matches from the group stage, semifinal, to the final round.

In fact, France succeeded in beating Spain with a score of 2-0. At that time, Spain was the favorite team to win the European Cup after previously successfully defeating second place in the 1982 World Cup, West Germany, in the group stage.

However, the dominance of the host in the EURO Cup competition was halted in 1984. Since EURO Cup 1988, no host has been able to claim the championship title. The visiting team always celebrates in front of the home supporters.

Tight European Cup competition

If compared to other confederations, the European Cup is a competition with the least number of host countries that have won the championship title, namely three host countries out of a total of 16 events. This is very different from other confederation tournaments.

In the Asian Cup, for example, out of a total of 18 editions, there were eight hosts who managed to win the championship title. This means that almost half of the hosts since the 1956 edition of the Asian Cup until 2023 have achieved football supremacy in Asia. Countries such as South Korea, Iran, and Japan are a list of hosts that have previously won the championship title in the Asian Cup.

A similar situation can be seen in the Copa America, which is participated by countries in South America. Ever since it was first held in 1916 under the name South American Championship or Kejuaraan Amerika Selatan, there have been 17 host countries that have successfully won the championship title out of a total of 47 times held. This means that more than a third of the host countries have achieved the highest level of achievement in the confederation.

In the African continent, almost a third of the hosts have successfully reached the pinnacle of football hegemony in the "Black Continent". Since 1957, 10 host countries have become champions of the Africa Cup of Nations out of a total of 34 times it has been hosted. Most recently, Ivory Coast successfully utilized their status as host in the 2023 Africa Cup of Nations.

Similar to the Copa America and the African Cup, in the scope of the Oceania Football Confederation (OFC), one-third of the host countries have also managed to become champions. Out of 10 tournaments held, there were three host countries that successfully won the Oceania Cup or OFC Nations Cup. However, unlike other confederations, the Oceania Cup has always been dominated by Australia and New Zealand which are considered the center of Oceania football.

If compared with other confederation competitions, the European Cup is a cross-country event with the lowest percentage for the host to win the championship. This means that the probability for the host to become a champion is very small compared to other growing confederations.

This condition is caused by several aspects. First, since the 1980s until now, the quality of domestic competition in UEFA member countries has been equal. This condition has also had an impact on the quality of national teams, making competition in the European Cup even tighter. Gradually, the hosts no longer play a role as a center of power as still happens in countries in Oceania, Asia, and Africa.

Secondly, this condition is also caused by the multitude of players in Europe who participate in cross-country regular competitions. This can be seen, among other things, in Italy's Serie A in the 2022/2023 season, where only 40 percent of local players were played. Meanwhile, 60 percent of other players come from countries outside of Italy.

This certainly affects the mental quality of players who are accustomed to playing outside their home countries. As a result, players no longer experience stage fright in the European Cup while representing their respective countries. This condition is certainly very different compared to countries in Asia, Africa, and Oceania.

Germany's challenge in the 2024 European Cup

Based on the less than impressive historical facts and statistics of the host's performance, this is certainly a challenge for Germany, who is currently acting as the host of the Euro Cup 2024. Moreover, Germany previously failed to achieve success when hosting the Euro Cup 1988.

In 1988, West Germany was trusted to host the European Cup. West Germany has set an ambitious target to lift the trophy at home. This target is quite reasonable considering that West Germany was a two-time World Cup runner-up in 1982 and 1986. Unfortunately, West Germany had to bow to the Netherlands in the semifinals in front of their own fans.

Now, after reunification, Germany is once again trusted to host the European Cup. Looking at the composition of players that combines senior and young players, Germany has the opportunity to go further.

Also read: Scottish Libas, Germany Are Now Favorites to Win Euro 2024?

Emre Can, aged 30, and Thomas Muller, aged 34, are senior players from Germany who made a significant contribution when Germany defeated Scotland in last week's opening match. Meanwhile, Florian Wirtz, aged 21, Jamal Musiala, aged 21, and Kai Havertz, aged 25, are young players who have also played well in domestic competitions. These three players are also relied upon by Germany in the opening match of the 2024 European Cup.

On one hand, the host status, combined with a mixture of senior and junior players, has become Germany's weapon in this year's European Cup. However, on the other hand, Germany must be prepared to face favored championship teams such as Portugal, France, and England. Can the Panser team overcome historical bias? (KOMPAS RESEARCH)

Also read: Switzerland Vs Germany, Hosts Aiming for Perfect Results