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Brad Crawford
Many of college football's most dominant programs over the past 20 years come from the SEC, a league that's owned the rest of the competition in recruiting and national championship relevance. That's not the only conference that has produced elite winners at the highest level, however.
ESPN's Bill Connelly recently posted his numbers for college football's top 25 programs over a 20-year average, according to his SP+ ratings, which are a "measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football." Most of these programs have been consistent winners over the past two decades with storied coaches who rank among the most notable in school history.
On the other side of the coin, there are others who are fading quickly and need to steer their respective ships in the right direction against rough seas.
Here's a look at college football's 25 most notable programs over the past 20 years, according to ESPN's updated SP+ ratings.
25. Utah Utes
ESPN's 20-year SP+ average: 9.98
Our take: Urban Meyer won 22 games over two seasons before handing the keys to the program to Kyle Whittingham in 2005. Since, Whittingham has managed seven seasons with double-digit win totals and has won consecutive Pac-12 championships.
24. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
ESPN's 20-year SP+ average: 10.0
Our take: Brian Kelly went on a notable run at Notre Dame from 2010 through 2021 before leaving the program for the LSU vacancy. Marcus Freeman hopes to continue what numerous successful coaches managed to accomplish before him in the future.
23. Tennessee Volunteers
ESPN's 20-year SP+ average: 10.02
Our take: Admittedly, we were surprised to see the Volunteers as one of the SEC's nine programs ranked inside ESPN's SP+ top 25 over the last 20 years. Josh Heupel's 11-2 season in 2022 was only Tennessee's third finish inside the top 15 since 2004.
22. Boise State Broncos
ESPN's 20-year SP+ average: 10.10
Our take: The standard in the Mountain West Conference since leaving the WAC after the 2010 season, Boise State is the Group of Five program that's shown the most success over this 20-year average.
21. Missouri Tigers
ESPN's 20-year SP+ average: 10.24
Our take: Under Gary Pinkel, the Tigers twice won the SEC East upon arrival in 2012, but have put together only one eight-win season since. Getting back to that heightened level of notoriety is the goal for Eli Drinkwitz and the current staff.
20. Iowa Hawkeyes
ESPN's 20-year SP+ average: 10.27
Our take: Kirk Ferentz followed Hayden Fry at the turn of the millennium and has nine nationally-ranked finishes over this 20-year stretch. He won Big Ten titles in 2002 and 2004 and reached the conference title games twice since.
19. TCU Horned Frogs
ESPN's 20-year SP+ average: 10.38
Our take: Did TCU catch lightning in a bottle under first-year coach Sonny Dykes this season or is this program capable of continuing heightened success under a new regime following Gary Patterson's era of success? For starters, college football's new inclusion of the revised, no-holds-barred transfer portal certainly helps programs like TCU annually flip rosters with a positive spin. TCU's unprecedented run from unranked to the College Football Playoff this season was nothing short of spectacular and will always be remembered.
18. Virginia Tech Hokies
ESPN's 20-year SP+ average: 10.70
Our take: What has happened to Virginia Tech? The Hokies have one 10-win season over the past decade, which coincides with Frank Beamer's exit in 2015. Since his departure, Virginia Tech is 47-41 overall. The Hokies have four ACC titles over this 20-year stretch, but not have come since 2010. This was once a storied program under Beamer that is trying to get back to national relevance with Brent Pry moving into his second season.
17. Texas A&M Aggies
ESPN's 20-year SP+ average: 11.40
Our take: Texas A&M has a single double-digit win season over the past decade, that coming in 2012 when Kevin Sumlin went 11-2 with Johnny Manziel as his starting quarterback. Looking back, it's hard to believe that's already been 10 years ago. He was eventually fired a few years later, giving way to Jimbo Fisher, whose record through his first five seasons is actually worse than what Sumlin was able to accomplish. For a program that spends money likes it's printed in College Station, Texas A&M expects more success on the field.
16. Penn State Nittany Lions
ESPN's 20-year SP+ average: 11.98
Our take: Following the greatest coach in program history is never an easy feat and Bill O'Brien found that out the hard way in 2012 after taking over for Joe Paterno. O'Brien last two seasons before Vanderbilt's James Franklin took over. Franklin has four 11-win seasons in nine years since with a conference championship in 2016, but hasn't yet helped the Nittany Lions climb the College Football Playoff mountain. That's the goal in 2023 with his most talented team yet.
15. Michigan Wolverines
ESPN's 20-year SP+ average: 12.07
Our take: With Rich Rodriguez and Brady Hoke in the rearview, Jim Harbaugh took over as Michigan's leading man in 2015 and has six top 20 finishes in helping the Wolverines return to the national championship picture. Both of his Big Ten championships have come over the last two seasons and with Monday's acknowledgment that he has turned back NFL interests for more at Michigan, the Wolverines couldn't be more anxious to see what's in store for the 2023 campaign and beyond.
14. Florida State Seminoles
ESPN's 20-year SP+ average: 12.56
Our take: Jimbo Fisher's run of success that followed program legend Bobby Bowden included a BCS National Championship for the Seminoles in 2013 with Jameis Winston leading the show at quarterback. Fisher's tenure ended in a somewhat rocky divorce a few years later and FSU has struggled to get back inside the top 15 since. The program expects to be there in 2023 when Mike Norvell leads a veteran-laden team coming off a 10-win season into the national spotlight.
13. Oregon Ducks
ESPN's 20-year SP+ average: 12.82
Our take: Chip Kelly and Marcus Mariota defined Oregon football in the 2010s as the program reached all-time highs with two appearances in the national championship game. The Ducks have suffered only one losing season since and have won three conference titles since 2014. Dan Lanning enters his second season as coach in 2023 with arguably the program's best quarterback since Mariota in tow with Bo Nix sticking around for another campaign.
12. Oklahoma State Cowboys
ESPN's 20-year SP+ average: 12.93
Our take: One of the nation's most consistent winners since taking over in 2005, Mike Gundy is 156-75spanning this 20-year average with nine finishes inside the AP Top 25 and a single Big 12 championship (2011). After tying his career-best mark with 12 wins during the 2021 season, Gundy and the Cowboys fell flat with seven wins in 2022 and have now lost most of their key returning players to the NCAA transfer portal. Still, to be a top 15 program over the past 20 years shows Oklahoma State is awfully underrated nationally.
11. Wisconsin Badgers
ESPN's 20-year SP+ average: 13.04
Our take: Wisconsin's last nationally-ranked finish came in 2019, but the Badgers have been one of the Big Ten's most successful programs during this 20-year stretch categorized by the SP+ ratings. Barry Alvarez, Bret Bielema and Paul Chryst all enjoyed success with the Badgers taking a defense-first, smashmouth mindset. Wisconsin expects to get back to the top of the podium with former Cincinnati coach Luke Fickell now in charge.
10. USC Trojans
ESPN's 20-year SP+ average: 13.64
Our take: We're nearing the two-decade mark since USC's most recent national championship (2004), but the Trojans are on the right track toward getting back to the promised land. In fact, Lincoln Riley's group finished a lone win shy of reaching the College Football Playoff in his first campaign last fall. Since 2010, USC has managed five seasons with 10 or more wins, but only has one conference championship out West to show for it.
9. Texas Longhorns
ESPN's 20-year SP+ average: 13.88
Our take: Mack Brown's illustrious tenure was defined by the Longhorns' unbeaten run to a national title with Vince Young at quarterback in 2005, and Texas got back to the final game in 2009, this time under the direction of Colt McCoy. An early injury to McCoy against Alabama cost the Longhorns a shot at another ring, however. They've been trying to get back to that stage since under multiple head coaches.
8. Auburn Tigers
ESPN's 20-year SP+ average: 14.37
Our take: It took a transcendent talent like Cam Newton for Auburn to win the national championship in 2010 with one of the most memorable seasons in college football history. The Tigers have enjoyed two double-digit win seasons since, including another appearance in the national title game in 2013 when Auburn lost to FSU in the finale. Auburn is hoping new coach Hugh Freeze quickly gets the program back to prominence with an offense-first mentality.
7. Florida Gators
ESPN's 20-year SP+ average: 16.10
Our take: Thanks to the successful Urban Meyer era in Gainesville anchored by the likes of Heisman winner Tim Tebow and countless other All-Americans, the Gators have found their way inside the top 10 of the most successful programs over the past two decades. It's hard to believe that current University of Florida freshmen werein diapers when the Gators won their last national championship (2008). For some fans, that feels like yesterday.
6. Clemson Tigers
ESPN's 20-year SP+ average: 16.57
Our take: Clemson has to be thankful it gave Dabo Swinney a shot in 2008 on an interim basis to earn his stripes as the Tigers' eventual head coach. The level of success he has managed to accomplish since has never been seen before in ACC history with two national championships and 12 consecutive seasons with 10 or more wins. That streak of dominance includes a school-record 40-game home winning streak that was snapped during the 2022 campaign and a final ranking inside the AP's top 15 every year since 2015.
5. LSU Tigers
ESPN's 20-year SP+ average: 18.95
Our take: The only program nationally with three national titles across three different head coaches since 2001, LSU comes in at No. 5 with a 18.95 20-year average according to ESPN's SP+ rankings. Les Miles consistently had the Tigers inside the top 10 during his tenure prior to Ed Orgeron finding gold with Joe Burrow and a future NFL Draft pick-saturated roster in 2019. The Tigers went 15-0 that season and won the national title with one of the most impressive individual seasons of all-time.
4. Georgia Bulldogs
ESPN's 20-year SP+ average: 19.61
Our take: Kirby Smart has pushed Georgia's success that began under Mark Richt and pushed it into overdrive since his arrival with three appearances in the national championship game since 2017, including back to back titles. Not only are the Bulldogs lapping the field in recruiting, but player development has been far superior compared to much of the competition inside the top 10 in recent years. Georgia is the new "it" program nationally and Smart's the reason after learning the ropes under Saban on Alabama's staff.
3. Oklahoma Sooners
ESPN's 20-year SP+ average: 19.75
Our take: Oklahoma has Bob Stoops and partially Riley to thank for its reign atop the Big 12 since the turn of the century. The Sooners have won double-digit conference titles, and have appeared in the four-team playoff four separate times since college football went to its new format in 2014. Oklahoma has been the top recruiter in the Big 12 over this span on average and has spit out several Heisman winners and a few dozen All-Americans.
2. Ohio State Buckeyes
ESPN's 20-year SP+ average: 20.30
Our take: Believe it or not, Ohio State is the only Big Ten team inside the top 10 over this 20-year average and the Buckeyes have done it by winning "big" at a consistent rate under Jim Tressel, Urban Meyer and Ryan Day. Only once have the Buckeyes had a losing record during this two-decade stretch and they've acquired 11 Big Ten championships. Under Meyer, the Buckeyes won the national title in 2014, the first year of the College Football Playoff.
1. Alabama Crimson Tide
ESPN's 20-year SP+ average: 23.19
Our take: The standard of excellence in college football across Nick Saban's illustrious tenure, Alabamahas now won 11-plus games for the 12th straight season following its Sugar Bowl victory over Kansas State to conclude the 2022 campaign. Saban has six national championships with the Crimson Tide including three in a four-year stretch to commence his dynasty from 2009 through 2012. No program has been ranked No. 1 in the country more often than Alabama during this stretch.
