All Severe Weather Outlooks for the next 8 days (2024)

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National Severe Weather Outlook for the next week

Here you'll find all available severe weather outlooks on one page.

Overview of the threat for the next few days

Outlook Summary

Isolated strong storms are possible across south Florida, southeast Colorado and south Texas for a few more hours this evening.

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Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 120033

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0733 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Valid 120100Z - 121200Z

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO…SOUTH TEXAS…AND SOUTH FLORIDA

### SUMMARY

Isolated strong storms are possible across south Florida, southeast Colorado and south Texas for a few more hours this evening.

TX

The Slight risk (level 2 of 5) has been removed and the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) trimmed to encompass ongoing convection. Overall storm organization has been messy and struggling to maintain severe intensity within a weakly unstable and modestly sheared environment. A stronger supercell was noted around 00z near the Rio Grande, but strong outflow shifting southwest will likely have deleterious effects on any further convection developing near the River. Nevertheless, a strong storm or two producing locally gusty winds and hail will be possible into the early overnight hours across parts of south TX.

FL

The Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) continues across south FL this evening. A few weakly rotating storms have been noted offshore, with one more recently over the Everglades. A brief tornado or two will be possible for another couple of hours this evening.

CO/NM

The Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been trimmed and is confined to ongoing convection across southeast CO. Isolated gusty winds and hail main continue with this activity for another few hours this evening before weakening.

Upper Midwest

Severe potential is expected to remain low the remainder of the evening/overnight. Very weak instability across the region is unlikely to sustain severe convection and overall coverage of storms will be low.

Mid-Atlantic

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will meander over northeast NC and far southeast VA the next few hours. However, very weak instability and low thunderstorm coverage will preclude severe potential.

..Leitman.. 06/12/2024

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook Summary

Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes will be possible across parts of the Upper Midwest on Wednesday. The probable time frame for the most intense storms should be centered on late afternoon to early evening.

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Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 111729

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER MIDWEST

### SUMMARY

Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes will be possible across parts of the Upper Midwest on Wednesday. The probable time frame for the most intense storms should be centered on late afternoon to early evening.

Upper Midwest

A relatively complex convective scenario should unfold Wednesday with multiple rounds of severe potential anticipated. A mesoscale corridor of level 3-ENH risk may be warranted in later cycles, likely driven by greater hail probabilities, if spatial confidence increases.

A fast largely zonal upper jet, initially along the international border over the Northwest, will spread into ND and northern MN by early Thursday. This will be coincident with a shortwave trough moving from the Canadian Rockies to the southern Prairie Provinces. A surface cyclone should track from southeast SK to along the MN/ON border by Wednesday evening. In advance of this wave, pronounced low-level warm theta-e advection will occur from the Great Plains amid an elevated mixed layer shifting east from the Dakotas and central High Plains.

At least isolated elevated convection should be ongoing at 12Z along the periphery of the EML, centered on eastern SD into southwest MN. Consensus of guidance suggests this activity should persist into the diurnal heating cycle, centered on southern MN with a threat for isolated severe hail. Some of this activity may transition to surface-based character by midday to early afternoon with potential for an isolated strong wind threat as well. The spatial evolution of this early-day activity will likely modulate the overall threat, especially with northeast extent into western WI, where surface-based destabilization may be limited.

The primary mid to late afternoon scenario should be focused ahead of the impinging cold front/surface trough in northwest MN to eastern SD. A confined plume of moderately large buoyancy should develop by peak heating with MLCAPE reaching 2000-3000 J/kg. The southwesterly low-level wind profile coupled with gradual veering to west-northwesterly (and strengthening) upper-level winds will favor hodograph elongation. Discrete supercells may tend to be more favored across northern MN initially before clustering into the evening. A messier convective mode is anticipated with southern extent, where residual outflow from early-day storms will likely focus regenerative convection. Tornado potential should be mesoscale-focused in this regime with enhanced low-level SRH near the trailing outflow, amid a more deeply mixed boundary layer to the west/south. This scenario should include embedded supercells within a southeast-sagging cluster into the evening as low-level winds become increasingly veered over IA. With greater buoyancy/instability to the west, the western portion of an evening cluster/MCS should contain the primary large hail/severe wind threat before convection wanes overnight.

..Grams.. 06/11/2024

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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

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Outlook Summary

Thunderstorms associated with large hail and severe gusts will be possible on Thursday in parts of the central Plains and mid Mississippi Valley. Marginally severe storms will also be possible in parts of the Great Lakes and central High Plains.

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Detailed Outlook

SPC AC 110729

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY

### SUMMARY

Thunderstorms associated with large hail and severe gusts will be possible on Thursday in parts of the central Plains and mid Mississippi Valley. Marginally severe storms will also be possible in parts of the Great Lakes and central High Plains.

Central Plains/Mid Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes

An upper-level trough will move eastward into the Great Lakes region on Thursday, as a cold front advances southward into the central Plains, mid Mississippi Valley and southern Great Lakes. Along and to the south of the front, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s F, will likely contribute to the development of moderate instability by afternoon. As surface temperatures warm during the day, thunderstorms are expected to form along the front, with several clusters of strong to potentially severe storms moving southeastward across the central Plains, mid Mississippi Valley and southern Great Lakes region.

The greatest potential for severe storms appears to be from northeast Kansas east-northeastward into north-central Illinois where the models suggest that the strongest instability will develop. Along the front, the NAM has the strongest instability in northeast Kansas, where MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 4000 to 5000 J/kg range in the late afternoon. At that time, the NAM forecast sounding at Kansas City has gradually veering winds with height, 0-6 km shear near 30 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates around 7.5 C/km. This environment would support a potential for supercells with large hail. However, with northwest mid-level flow aloft, persistent convective clusters may tend to organize into line segments with wind-damage potential. The chance for severe wind gusts could extend east-northeastward along a narrow corridor of instability into north-central Illinois, northern Indiana and Lower Michigan. Due to more widely-spaced storms in the Great Lakes region, the threat may be more isolated with northeastward extent.

Central High Plains

An upper-level ridge is forecast to move eastward through the Rockies on Thursday. A narrow axis of maximized instability and moisture is forecast by afternoon to the east of the ridge from northern Kansas into northeast Colorado and far southwest Wyoming. As surface temperatures warm during the day, isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop near the instability axis. Although flow is forecast to be relatively weak in the low-levels, speed shear in the mid-levels could be enough for an isolated severe threat. Hail and/or marginally severe wind gusts would be the primary threats.

..Broyles.. 06/11/2024

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

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Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110852 SPC AC 110852

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

DISCUSSION

Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6

From Friday to Sunday, an upper-level ridge is forecast to move eastward from the Great Plains to the northeast, as a shortwave trough moves northeastward from the Four Corners to the upper Mississippi Valley. A somewhat narrow corridor of instability, oriented from southeast to northwest, is forecast ahead of the trough on Friday and Saturday. As the trough moves out into the central High Plains, isolated to scattered thunderstorms appear likely to develop across parts the instability corridor, with the greatest convective coverage likely in the evening and overnight period when the airmass is less likely to be capped. A severe threat could be associated with the stronger cells within the clusters that form near areas of moderate to strong instability. The main uncertainty involves the position of the instability axis relative the approaching trough. Some models suggest that the two will be far removed from each other, which introduces a lot of uncertainty concerning any potential scenario.

On Sunday, the shortwave trough is forecast to move into the upper Mississippi Valley, and out-run the stronger instability located in the mid Missouri Valley. Strong to potentially severe storms may still develop in association with the trough, but the forecast position of the warm sector relative to the trough introduces uncertainty into the forecast.

Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/Day 8

On Monday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move into the western U.S., as southwest mid-level flow remains over much of the central U.S. It appears that a moist and unstable airmass will be located from the central Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley, where isolated to scattered strong to severe storms will be possible each day. However, model spread is large concerning the timing of shortwave features and the positioning of instability. For this reason, uncertainty is considerable for Monday and Tuesday.

..Broyles.. 06/11/2024

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

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Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110852 SPC AC 110852

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

DISCUSSION

Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6

From Friday to Sunday, an upper-level ridge is forecast to move eastward from the Great Plains to the northeast, as a shortwave trough moves northeastward from the Four Corners to the upper Mississippi Valley. A somewhat narrow corridor of instability, oriented from southeast to northwest, is forecast ahead of the trough on Friday and Saturday. As the trough moves out into the central High Plains, isolated to scattered thunderstorms appear likely to develop across parts the instability corridor, with the greatest convective coverage likely in the evening and overnight period when the airmass is less likely to be capped. A severe threat could be associated with the stronger cells within the clusters that form near areas of moderate to strong instability. The main uncertainty involves the position of the instability axis relative the approaching trough. Some models suggest that the two will be far removed from each other, which introduces a lot of uncertainty concerning any potential scenario.

On Sunday, the shortwave trough is forecast to move into the upper Mississippi Valley, and out-run the stronger instability located in the mid Missouri Valley. Strong to potentially severe storms may still develop in association with the trough, but the forecast position of the warm sector relative to the trough introduces uncertainty into the forecast.

Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/Day 8

On Monday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move into the western U.S., as southwest mid-level flow remains over much of the central U.S. It appears that a moist and unstable airmass will be located from the central Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley, where isolated to scattered strong to severe storms will be possible each day. However, model spread is large concerning the timing of shortwave features and the positioning of instability. For this reason, uncertainty is considerable for Monday and Tuesday.

..Broyles.. 06/11/2024

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110852 SPC AC 110852

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

DISCUSSION

Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6

From Friday to Sunday, an upper-level ridge is forecast to move eastward from the Great Plains to the northeast, as a shortwave trough moves northeastward from the Four Corners to the upper Mississippi Valley. A somewhat narrow corridor of instability, oriented from southeast to northwest, is forecast ahead of the trough on Friday and Saturday. As the trough moves out into the central High Plains, isolated to scattered thunderstorms appear likely to develop across parts the instability corridor, with the greatest convective coverage likely in the evening and overnight period when the airmass is less likely to be capped. A severe threat could be associated with the stronger cells within the clusters that form near areas of moderate to strong instability. The main uncertainty involves the position of the instability axis relative the approaching trough. Some models suggest that the two will be far removed from each other, which introduces a lot of uncertainty concerning any potential scenario.

On Sunday, the shortwave trough is forecast to move into the upper Mississippi Valley, and out-run the stronger instability located in the mid Missouri Valley. Strong to potentially severe storms may still develop in association with the trough, but the forecast position of the warm sector relative to the trough introduces uncertainty into the forecast.

Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/Day 8

On Monday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move into the western U.S., as southwest mid-level flow remains over much of the central U.S. It appears that a moist and unstable airmass will be located from the central Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley, where isolated to scattered strong to severe storms will be possible each day. However, model spread is large concerning the timing of shortwave features and the positioning of instability. For this reason, uncertainty is considerable for Monday and Tuesday.

..Broyles.. 06/11/2024

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110852 SPC AC 110852

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

DISCUSSION

Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6

From Friday to Sunday, an upper-level ridge is forecast to move eastward from the Great Plains to the northeast, as a shortwave trough moves northeastward from the Four Corners to the upper Mississippi Valley. A somewhat narrow corridor of instability, oriented from southeast to northwest, is forecast ahead of the trough on Friday and Saturday. As the trough moves out into the central High Plains, isolated to scattered thunderstorms appear likely to develop across parts the instability corridor, with the greatest convective coverage likely in the evening and overnight period when the airmass is less likely to be capped. A severe threat could be associated with the stronger cells within the clusters that form near areas of moderate to strong instability. The main uncertainty involves the position of the instability axis relative the approaching trough. Some models suggest that the two will be far removed from each other, which introduces a lot of uncertainty concerning any potential scenario.

On Sunday, the shortwave trough is forecast to move into the upper Mississippi Valley, and out-run the stronger instability located in the mid Missouri Valley. Strong to potentially severe storms may still develop in association with the trough, but the forecast position of the warm sector relative to the trough introduces uncertainty into the forecast.

Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/Day 8

On Monday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move into the western U.S., as southwest mid-level flow remains over much of the central U.S. It appears that a moist and unstable airmass will be located from the central Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley, where isolated to scattered strong to severe storms will be possible each day. However, model spread is large concerning the timing of shortwave features and the positioning of instability. For this reason, uncertainty is considerable for Monday and Tuesday.

..Broyles.. 06/11/2024

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

Outlook Images

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110852 SPC AC 110852

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

DISCUSSION

Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6

From Friday to Sunday, an upper-level ridge is forecast to move eastward from the Great Plains to the northeast, as a shortwave trough moves northeastward from the Four Corners to the upper Mississippi Valley. A somewhat narrow corridor of instability, oriented from southeast to northwest, is forecast ahead of the trough on Friday and Saturday. As the trough moves out into the central High Plains, isolated to scattered thunderstorms appear likely to develop across parts the instability corridor, with the greatest convective coverage likely in the evening and overnight period when the airmass is less likely to be capped. A severe threat could be associated with the stronger cells within the clusters that form near areas of moderate to strong instability. The main uncertainty involves the position of the instability axis relative the approaching trough. Some models suggest that the two will be far removed from each other, which introduces a lot of uncertainty concerning any potential scenario.

On Sunday, the shortwave trough is forecast to move into the upper Mississippi Valley, and out-run the stronger instability located in the mid Missouri Valley. Strong to potentially severe storms may still develop in association with the trough, but the forecast position of the warm sector relative to the trough introduces uncertainty into the forecast.

Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/Day 8

On Monday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move into the western U.S., as southwest mid-level flow remains over much of the central U.S. It appears that a moist and unstable airmass will be located from the central Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley, where isolated to scattered strong to severe storms will be possible each day. However, model spread is large concerning the timing of shortwave features and the positioning of instability. For this reason, uncertainty is considerable for Monday and Tuesday.

..Broyles.. 06/11/2024

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

← back to overview

National Risk Overview

Tuesday, June 11

TORNADO: 2%

HAIL: 5%

WIND: 5%

Wednesday, June 12

TORNADO: 5%

HAIL: 15%

WIND: 15%

Thursday, June 13

ANY SEVERE: 15%

Friday, June 14

ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

Saturday, June 15

ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

Sunday, June 16

ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

Monday, June 17

ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

Tuesday, June 18

ANY SEVERE: low / uncertain

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